TRON Price Prediction 2018 – Tronix USD (Cryptocurrency:TRX-USD)

(Originally published here)

Tron has garnered a lot of attention lately—in the last month it’s launched its test net, finished its token swap, begun its super representative program, purchased famed internet site BitTorrent, and more. Justin Sun, the CEO of Tron, has remained one of the more active leaders in crypto and continues to push his plan for Tron’s token TRX to be the currency of the decentralized internet. So where does this leave us in terms of price? The following is our Tron price prediction for 2018.

Currently, TRX sits at #11 in total market cap with a coin price hovering near $.017, or around 291 Satoshi’s for the ratio watchers. It had been hovering in this position for the last few months, until a few deep altcoin drops of the last few weeks. TRON’s peak coin price was as high as eight cents just three months ago. Despite the good news and string of announcements, TRX has fallen just like the rest of the market.

And in predicting any price, especially if we’re looking at SATS (ratio of coin to BTC), the market’s macro movements are going to affect it. If the market and BTC rebound, TRX, like many coins, will be rebound by default. In this way, I am going to keep my price prediction in three terms; USD price, satoshi ratio, and ratio of TRX market cap to the entire cryptocurrency market (as measured by coinmarketcap.com).

Tron Price Factors To Consider

To look at price, we’ll need to factor in a few elements. Let’s start with movement. TRX ICO’d at about $0.0019, a long way down from where it stands today, though a much longer way down from the coin’s all time high of nearly 30 cents. Still, for early investors, TRX has made a profitable gain and I suspect many have sold their original purchase, especially as the price came crashing down in 2018, taking gains while they were still to be made.

TRON had one of the more mega-ICOs; bringing in $70 million USD. As of May, there were still over a million wallet addresses holding TRX, proof that many have held on from the beginning and new holders have joined.

The next place to look is volume. TRX volume is strong and steady. It sees movement of about $200 million each day, give or take, and it’s spread across the two major trading channels for coins of its ilk; USDT trading and BTC trading. Mixed in there is ETH trading, but the highest of that (on this particular day) is only $5 of the $200 (2.5%) and fiat trading, the highest of which is paired with KRW (no surprise, Koreans are usually the highest fiat-traders). But even this is only $6.5 million. A very small portion.

Exchange Trading’s Influence on Tron Price

So that’s our first price predicting tell: fiat trading is still extremely unrepresented here. That means that TRX has an enormous opportunity to crack into more fiat selling; whether it be more KRW or TKY, or, more importantly fiat transactions from China, the U.S., and Europe. This hasn’t happened yet because no one is provided that gateway. Once someone does (be it Coinbase for instance for USD trading, I expect we’ll see a spike in volume (not all buying of course) that will likely lift TRX price. Coinbase’s announcement, for instance, of potentially adding Stellar and Cardano to its site, lifted both coins price by 10-20% in the following days.

So, fiat gateways will have influence here. What’s needed to get fiat gateways? Exchanges to provide it of course. And exchanges won’t provide unless they kno that the blockchain is safe, the economics and trustworthy, and that the coin, via the exchange, will comply with different nation’s regulations on buying. No small task.

And since TRON is just in its infancy as its own chain; having launched its “sandbox” virtual machine just one week ago, this won’t happen soon. It needs to stabilize first.

Still, there’s some bullsih news on this front. Here’s on hypothetical use case; rewarding torrent seeders with TRX for their bandwidth and uptime. Analysts are already commenting on this opportunity, both for its practicality, but also becomes it fits Sun and TRON’s vision of financially empowering a decentralized (user-run) internet. If there is incentive on the individual to perform, it removes reliability on large-scale institutions. That’s what they want; and the TRX coin, ledgered on the Tron blockchain, can provide that economic exertion.

What does that have to do with fiat gateways? My theory is that the more a coin is exposed to public utility, providing bandwidth for instance, the more its value unties itself from Bitcoin or the crypto market at large. If I want to perform one singular task, or want to be paid for one single thing, I don’t want to go through another currency to get my TRX. So there could be, with the increase of single-use reward structures online, an undeniable demand for quick TRX purchase and exchange that would cause exchanges to see the need to cirucmvent BTC pairing.

China’s Deep Pockets

China is the great unlock for me with TRON. Simply put, they aren’t in the game right now (Chinese Yuan is estimated to be at 1% of total BTC trading). We aren’t seeing CNY pairing with TRON, or other coins, and we aren’t seeing Chinese firms truly started to get invested into the coin. More on that in one second.

TRON is part of the big Chinese three that I look at; along with NEO and VET. I suspet that when (and I think it’ll be a when) China does start to warm up to crypto, it will look to boost its national projects before international ones. You can see this with VET’s announcement of working with the Chinese government. I think TRON could see the same benefits.

China’s venture capital scene has exploded like never before. You can see charts and a write-up here; but the short is that VC firms and large cap Chinese tech companies are pumping money into startups. And not just some money. A LOT of money. Right now, TRON doesn’t necessarily need VC money (it raised $30 million in ICO and is now valued near $2 billion with coin liquidity), but it’s always an option for them.

And if the time comes for acquisitions, or an international marketing blitz to attract users to its coin, I trust this company more than most. First there’s Sun and his connections, but just as one of the stronger positioned Chinese coins. It will have the benefit of being a homegrown investment, something the Chinese have proven to like to the dismay of companies like Google and Uber.

Turning on the China switch could change TRON overnight. So that’s always at bay. And I don’t say that about a lot of coins. Even a hint that China is going to allow money—personal investors and institutional—back into crypt could double TRON price overnight.

Longer Term Technical Analysis

In addition the reasoning above, I’ve found some interesting technical signals for TRON’s price; compelling charts to think about a future where the TRX/BTC ratio turns sharply in TRON’s favor. Here are two examples.

This is made by analyst dontFOMO and shows a TRX ratio bottom with a bull wedge formed since May. From here, this analyst sees a bounce back upward. The chart shows a bounce that could lead TRX all the way up through 615 Satoshis. Here’s the chart:

Using MACD and RSI readings, analyst x45lu sees a double convergence on the TRX daily charts that could pop upward and start momentum out of a bottom on the BTC ratio. Here’s the chart that user made:

Walletinvestor—though not the most reliable technical analysis by any means, has a chart that shows TRX increases through the remaining months of the year with an end of 2018 USD targeted of just over 5 cents.

Tron Price Prediction 2018

Okay, I’ve given the factors I’m looking at in terms of TRX. I think this article, as well, covers the recent news and tech items from TRON that are outside of price prediction but obviously tied to it. A coin needs to perfrom and progress (or should need to anyway, though this market is still heavily irrational) to see its coin retain value.

So where does TRX land?

Let’s start with the hardest one, pure USD price. I think TRX has a ton of momentum going for it. I think trading pairs, especially if we see CNY enter the equation, could really blow this thing up. China adds even more intrigue of possibility. I see TRX going up. And in the next 5 months, I could see it going as high as $.065–or six and a half cents. That’d be a strong recovery from this point, but just a bit above where it was in May 2018. That’s achievable, and would give TRX a market cap of over $4.2 billion (based on current circulating supply numbers), a bit higher than EOS is at current moment (and I think TRX has more momentum for usability than EOS at the moment).

Next, Satoshis. So where does TRON/TRX come in in relation to BTC by the end of 2018? Well, we’d have to predict where BTC gets to, a whole other article and something that’s been covered by experts at all angles. Estimates are anywhere from $1 to $25,000 that I’ve seen, which I think are both highly unlikely of course.

I’m bullish on crypto and BTC making a comeback, but I don’t see it making the bump that I see in TRX (200%+) in 5 months. So I think BTC will settle somewhere near $8k-$11k through the rest of the year; so I would see a Satoshi range of anywhere from 590 sats to 825 sats. I think it will be a year or two more for coins to seriously move away from BTC so if a coin like TRX starts to make serious moves, it will be bullish for crypto at large, likely moving BTC up. Of course, vice versa is very true as well.

And lastly, TRON price as compared to the entire market. Right now, TRON represents less than 1% of the total market (somewhere around .07%). I do expect TRON to outperform the market at large, but the other factor is new coins entering the market, and many of those will come on the back so large ICOs, bringing in more millions to the market. SO even if TRON outperforms current coins by 5%, it could be equalized by ICOs. ICOs raised $6.3 billion in just Q1 of 2018 alone (surpassing all of 2017), so it needs to be considered.

Still, if I think TRX is due for the bump that I predicted in pure USD price, it will outpace the market even with the new influx. So my prediction is that by year’s end, we’ll see TRON occupying somewhere from 1.1-1.4% of the total crypto market (which would be something like a $375 and $525 billion market, in line I would think with the 8k-11k BTC).

Conclusion

The conclusion here is easy. I’m bullish on what TRON can do and,in turn, am bullish on that price of TRX increasing. Even in the short term (before the end of 2018) I think there’s a compelling case to be made about TRX’s potential to start fueling decentralized systems, creating demand for the coin and real use cases creating underlying value. That’s no easy task, so it may come later. Still, if TRON can show that this is the path that it’s heading down, more money will come in. And if some of that money starts to flow in from a Chinese market that’s been hesitant, well that could be a complete game-changer.

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Disclosure: I am/we are long TRX-USD.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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